The future looks bright ahead for social forecasting Web site Hubdub. Since its launch in early 2008, the UK-based Hubdub allows users to predict future news stories and events -- even tonight's annual Online News Association Awards.
"My vision is people using the markets to explain stories," said Nigel Eccles, CEO and founder of Hubdub.
Users bet on potential news outcomes using play money. For example, one of the Hubdub topics asks users to predict who will win the US presidential election. Users can cast their predictions for either Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. John McCain. Recently, Obama's percentage dropped, which Eccles said could be influenced by the introduction of Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Biden's remarks on disabilities. Hubdub offers a quick way to view the shift of public opinion. "I could go out and read 5,000 articles or I could go check the forecasts," said Eccles.
Hubdub even has prediction markets for 5 categories of tonight's ONA awards. Visit Hubdub's ONA prediction page to cast your predictions on who you think will win the awards.
When users register for a free account, they receive $1,000 in play money. Using Hubdub dollars, users wager based on their confidence level. Correct predictions over time result in more money and a higher position on the leaderboard, while incorrect predictions perform the opposite.
People join Hubdub because "A -- it's fun. B -- they find it really social. And C -- they're really into the news," said Eccles. Also, competitive users can bask in the satisfaction of predicting correctly, and passive users can quickly gauge view public opinion rather than reading many articles. Using percentages rather than odds, Hubdub measures probability in a way that is easy to understand.
Eccles previously worked in launching online betting websites in the UK but became dissatisfied with them. "Betting markets have these great stories, but they're buried," he said. The betting Web sites focused on the market, instead of the underlying story surrounding the bet.
Using predictions and percentages, Hubdub chronicles the shift of public opinion and potential news. "We use the Dow Jones as a barometer on how the economy is doing...This is exactly the same," said Eccles.
--Jess Ramos